Dubai This Week: sales slow, launches dry up, and buyers gain room to negotiate

Dubai This Week · 9 October 2026

The short version: Dubai’s sales slowed sharply in the third quarter, developers have almost stopped launching new projects, and a record number of finished homes are arriving. For buyers, that means more choice and more room to negotiate, especially on ready homes and off-plan resales. For sellers, it means pricing on evidence matters more than it has in years.

What happened

• Sales fell. Dubai recorded about 37,400 property sales in the third quarter, down more than a third on a year earlier, and their total value almost halved to about AED 92.9 billion, according to Dubai Land Department data reported by AGBI.
• New launches dried up. Developers launched about 5,300 homes in the second quarter, against more than 45,000 in the first, according to Savills.
• Completions surged. About 27,300 homes were handed over in the second quarter, the most in five years (Savills). The DLD counted 104 completed projects and 24,537 new units in the first half of 2026, Gulf News reported.
• The mix is shifting. S&P Global Ratings expects resales to make up a bigger share of deals as falling prices lead some investors to sell.

Also this week

• Dubai South led again. Dubai South was the most active residential location in Q3, with 5,165 transactions at an average of AED 1,690 per sq ft. Across Dubai, 84% of Q3 deals were below AED 3 million, up from 82% in Q2, and sales of completed homes strengthened from the previous quarter, according to Springfield Properties data reported by Zawya.
• Nakheel launched Bay Estate. On 6 October, Nakheel launched Bay Estate, the first homes on Island E, the lowest-density part of the Dubai Islands masterplan, which is planned for more than 230,000 residents across 62,000 homes. More in the Dubai Islands guide.

Why

Buyer confidence softened after the regional conflict, and developers responded by holding back launches. At the same time, homes sold off-plan in 2022 to 2024 are now being completed, adding supply to the ready and rental markets.

What it means, and for whom

• Buyers: more choice and more negotiating power, particularly on off-plan resales where some sellers want out. Take your time and compare recorded transactions, not asking prices.
• Sellers: the buyers are still there, but they are more selective. Well-priced, well-presented homes in good positions still sell; optimistic prices sit.
• Landlords: new completions add rental supply in some communities, so expect tenants to compare more.
• Off-plan buyers: fewer launches means less choice from developers, and more opportunities in the resale of units bought earlier.

Umar’s take

This is a better market for patient buyers than it was a year ago. I’m seeing off-plan resales offered below their original prices, and sellers of ready homes who are willing to talk. That doesn’t mean everything is cheap: well-located homes in good positions are holding up. If you’ve been waiting, now is a sensible time to start looking seriously, with the transaction data in front of you. If you’re selling, let’s price it on evidence from day one rather than reducing later.

General market commentary, not investment advice.