The short version: Dubai’s office market cooled from a record second quarter, but the fundamentals stayed strong in Q3 2026. Office resale prices rose 24% in a year, tenants renewing their leases are paying about 10% more, and investment is concentrated in a handful of locations. Here is what the numbers mean for investors and businesses.
Q3 2026 at a glance
- Commercial sales: 1,483 office, retail and industrial sales worth about AED 6.2 billion, up 6.5% in number on Q2 and about 30% higher in value than a year earlier.
- Office sales: 1,108 deals worth AED 4.35 billion, at an average of about AED 2,817 per sq ft. The number of deals rose 11.5% on Q2, and value was 39% higher than a year ago and about 2.7 times its level two years ago.
- Office resale prices: up about 4% on the quarter and 24% on the year.
- Retail sales: 352 deals worth about AED 1.22 billion, around 11% higher in value than a year ago.
Why value fell from Q2, and why that is not bad news
Office sales value fell about 42% from Q2. That was not a collapse in demand. Q2 was boosted by large off-plan registrations in Business Bay and Al Sufouh, and in Q3 new launches moved to smaller, lower-priced units, especially in Downtown Jebel Ali. Off-plan made up 64% of office deals and 71% of value, against 41% a year ago, so the office market is now much more driven by new launches. Resale deals recovered 49% on the quarter, though they remain below last year.
Where the money goes
Office investment is highly concentrated. Business Bay alone accounted for about 44% of office sales value, around AED 1.92 billion. Together with Downtown Jebel Ali, Jumeirah Lake Towers and Motor City, it made up about 81%. Outside these areas, deals are thin, which matters if you need to sell later or want a reliable valuation.
Rents: renewals carry the rise
- Renewing tenants pay more. Renewal rents in the main office hubs rose about 10% in a year, and renewals now make up about three-quarters of contracts.
- New-lease rents have levelled off. Rents on new office leases have stopped rising, so the cost of moving has narrowed. In Business Bay, the premium for a new lease over a renewal fell from about 35% to 17% in a year.
- Warehouses are the exception. New warehouse rents reached about AED 62 per sq ft, up 15% on the quarter and 29% on the year, driven by logistics and trade growth.
One to watch: branded offices
Developer LMD has unveiled the Christian A. Rockefeller Business Tower, a 400-metre, 87-storey Grade A tower on Sheikh Zayed Road with hotel-style amenities, due for completion in Q2 2031. Branded homes have driven Dubai’s luxury residential market for years. Branded offices are a new step, and a sign that premium office demand is strong.
What it means, and for whom
- Office investors: resale prices are firm and rents on renewals are rising, which supports income. Stick to liquid locations such as Business Bay, Downtown and JLT, where you can sell more easily later.
- Businesses renting offices: with new-lease rents flat, it may now cost less than it did a year ago to move to a better space. Compare your renewal offer with the market before you sign.
- Investors outside the main hubs: thin trading means less certainty on price. Be cautious, and check recent recorded sales before buying.
Umar’s take
Most of my clients buy homes, but I get more and more questions from investors who want to add an office or a warehouse to their portfolio. The Q3 numbers support that thinking: resale prices are rising, renewals are pushing rents up, and logistics demand is strong. But commercial property is less liquid than homes, so location matters even more. If you are weighing a commercial purchase against another residential one, message me and I will help you compare the numbers properly.
For weekly updates, join my WhatsApp channel, The Dubai Property Desk.
General market commentary, not investment advice. Figures are based on Dubai Land Department sales and leasing data for Q3 2026, and are rounded.
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